Oregon Population Forecast Program

.title[
# Oregon Population Forecast Program
]
.subtitle[
## Proposal Forecasts for Counties & UGBs
]
.author[
### Douglas County
]
.institute[
### Portland State University Population Research Center
]
.date[
### March 2026
]

---

# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Proposal Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts

---

# PSUPRC Project Team

**Huda Alkitkat, PhD.**  
*Population Estimates Manager*

**Seth Dowden**  
*Research Assistant*

**Neal Marquez, PhD.**  
*Population Forecast Manager*

**Gilbert Montcho, PhD.**  
*Demographic & Labor Econ Analyst*

**Scott Nordstrom, PhD.**  
*Post-Doctoral Researcher*
]

**Aja Sutton, PhD.**  
*Post-Doctoral Researcher*

**David Swanson, PhD.**  
*Research Associate*

**Suniva Thangaraj**  
*Program Manager*

**Joshua Wilde, PhD.**  
*Research Scientist*
]

---

# Douglas County Outline

- Introduction
- Updates
- County Overview
- UGB Forecasts

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.pux-right {
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---

# PSUPRC OPFP Population Forecasts

.puz-left[
- For the purposes of land use planning PSUPRC generates population forecasts
- For counties, urban growth boundaries (UGBs), and areas outside UGBs
- These forecasts must
    - Be updated at least every four years
    - Cover a 50 year forecast horizon
    - Include most up to date data
    - Allow for public input/objections
    - Methods & results publicly available

]

.puz-right[
![Oregon Seal](https://sos.oregon.gov/PublishingImages/Oregon-State-Seal-Navy-Gold.png)
]

---
# Oregon Population Forecast Program Cycle

![Program Cycle](program_cycle.png)

---
# Methods Review: Cohort Component Method

.pux-left[
- For Counties
- Births = Females 15-50 * Birth Rate
  - Both number of and rate of births in OR decreasing
- Deaths = All Population * Death Rate
  - While number of deaths are increasing rate of deaths decreasing
- Migration = Past migration events
  - Average of past migration is most likely scenario moving forward

]

---
# Methods Review: Housing Unit Method

.pull-left[
- For UGBs
- `$P_t = P_{t-1} + \Delta HU*PPH*OCC$`
- `$PPH$`: Persons per household
  - Estimated from most recent census data
- `$OCC$`: Occupancy Rate
  - Estimated from most recent census data
- `$\Delta HU$`: annual change in housing units
  - Modeled based on past housing unit growth trends

]

---
# After this meeting

- Email for further follow up  
- March 30, 2026 forecast discussion period ends
- Chance to formally appeal until May 15, 2026
  - Will review appeals in the following week
- No further changes will be made after May 22, 2026
- Reports and data tables will be available June 15, 2026

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Updates

---
# Survey and Preliminary Meeting Feedback

- Received housing and general survey responses from over 20 organizations
- Updated GIS UGB boundary lines 
- Account for large public works alter housing development trajectories
- Incorporate group quarter expansions
- Adjusted housing unit productions
- Housing build moratoriums
- General concerns
  - Restrictions on development  
  - Access to others responses
  
---
# Incoporation of 2025 Certified Estimates

![Estimates](./pop_est_page.png)

---
# Slowing Growth Across the State

![Oregonion](./opb_pop_growth_slow.png)

---

# Changes in Vital Trends

![Oregonion](./births_and_deaths.png)

---

# International Migration

![lex](./inter_mig.png)

---

# Domestic Mobility

![housing](./dom_mobility.png)

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Douglas County

---
# Summary of Considerations

- Douglas County's population growth has been consistent but slowing
- Negative natural change largely impacting growth
- Migration is expected to increase over time in part due to churn
- Negative population change is still on the way
- Slight upward adjustmenst made to reflect development

---

# Douglas at a Glance

<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Statistic </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Douglas </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Oregon </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Total Population </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 111,201 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,237,256 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 0-17 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 19.30% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.20% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 25.99% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.25% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population non-White </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 10.16% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.41% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.39 (49,774 units) </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.48 (1,813,747 units) </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---

# Douglas Employment Changes

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County: Douglas Industry: Financial activities Sector Jobs: 865","Year: 1998 County: Douglas Industry: Financial activities Sector Jobs: 1,094","Year: 2003 County: Douglas Industry: Financial activities Sector Jobs: 1,189","Year: 2008 County: Douglas Industry: Financial activities Sector Jobs: 1,248","Year: 2013 County: Douglas Industry: Financial activities Sector Jobs: 1,069","Year: 2018 County: Douglas Industry: Financial activities Sector Jobs: 1,046","Year: 2023 County: Douglas Industry: Financial activities Sector Jobs: 1,019"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(174,162,0,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Financial activities","legendgroup":"Financial 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7,306"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(100,178,0,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Government","legendgroup":"Government","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1992.590909090909,1997.590909090909,2002.590909090909,2007.590909090909,2012.590909090909,2017.590909090909,2022.590909090909],"y":[387,523,426,326,266,271,313],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Douglas Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 387","Year: 1998 County: Douglas Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 523","Year: 2003 County: Douglas Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 426","Year: 2008 County: Douglas Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 326","Year: 2013 County: Douglas Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 266","Year: 2018 County: Douglas Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 271","Year: 2023 County: Douglas Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 313"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,189,92,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Information","legendgroup":"Information","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1993,1998,2003,2008,2013,2018,2023],"y":[2920,3933,3241,3536,3159,3448,3774],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Douglas Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 2,920","Year: 1998 County: Douglas Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 3,933","Year: 2003 County: Douglas Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 3,241","Year: 2008 County: Douglas Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 3,536","Year: 2013 County: Douglas Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 3,159","Year: 2018 County: Douglas Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 3,448","Year: 2023 County: Douglas Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 3,774"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,193,167,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Leisure and hospitality","legendgroup":"Leisure and hospitality","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1993.409090909091,1998.409090909091,2003.409090909091,2008.409090909091,2013.409090909091,2018.409090909091,2023.409090909091],"y":[5894,6917,6233,5250,4399,4862,4598],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Douglas Industry: Manufacturing 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Douglas Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 1,762","Year: 1998 County: Douglas Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 2,481","Year: 2003 County: Douglas Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 2,537","Year: 2008 County: Douglas Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 2,944","Year: 2013 County: Douglas Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 3,272","Year: 2018 County: Douglas Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 3,882","Year: 2023 County: Douglas Industry: Professional and business services Sector Jobs: 3,060"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(179,133,255,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Professional and business services","legendgroup":"Professional and business 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and utilities Sector Jobs: 6,784","Year: 2023 County: Douglas Industry: Trade, transportation, and utilities Sector Jobs: 7,189"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(239,103,235,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Trade, transportation, and utilities","legendgroup":"Trade, transportation, and utilities","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1995.0454545454545,2000.0454545454545,2005.0454545454545,2010.0454545454545,2015.0454545454545,2020.0454545454545,2025.0454545454545],"y":[1031,1304,1265,1299,1275,1813,1285],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Douglas Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 1,031","Year: 1998 County: Douglas Industry: Unclassified Sector Jobs: 1,304","Year: 2003 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---

# Douglas Migration Flows

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---

# Douglas Population

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Growth has noticeably slowed in the period following the pandemic and the population is expected to stabilize over the forecast period.
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---

# Douglas Compositional Changes

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Natural change has rapidly fallen, and increased migration is necessary to maintain a stable population size.
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]

---

# Douglas Births

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]

---

# Douglas Deaths

.pulll-right[
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]

---

# Douglas Life Expectancy & TFR

---

# Population Pyramids

.pulll-left[
Out migration of young age populations, retirement migration, and continued aging in place is expected to contribute to a top heavy population dynamic.
]

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2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 75-79 Population: 3,490","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 80-84 Population: 2,414","Year: 2030 Type: Forecast Sex: Male Age: 85+ Population: 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---

# Douglas Race and Ethnicity

.pulll-left[
Douglas county's White population is measurably older than its non-White population which is expected to lead to population decline in the coming years.
]

.pulll-right[
<div class="plotly html-widget html-fill-item" id="htmlwidget-1265a95d730f41e6d125" style="width:504px;height:400px;"></div>
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---

# Douglas UGB Population Changes

---

# Douglas UGBs: Canyonville in Context

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<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 17.39% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.19% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 39.70% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 465 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 580 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 790 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.04% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.07% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 87.34% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.80 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.41 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.21 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $14,242 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $27,674 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $41,573 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.12% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 86.75% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 86.84% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Douglas County: Canyonville UGB Boundaries

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---

# Canyonville UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Canyonville UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Douglas UGBs: Drain in Context

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.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 10.63% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 13.22% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 17.92% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 444 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 441 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 496 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.47% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.02% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.13% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.77 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.57 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.59 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $15,000 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $27,833 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $49,130 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 86.51% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.56% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.46% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Douglas County: Drain UGB Boundaries

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---

# Drain UGB Pop Forecast

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# Drain UGB Pop Forecast

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# Douglas UGBs: Elkton in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Douglas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-26-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 19.35% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 22.45% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 46.45% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 65 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 82 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 107 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 96.92% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 87.80% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 88.79% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.46 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.04 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1.93 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $13,056 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $27,188 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $45,625 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.07% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.83% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 100.00% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Douglas County: Elkton UGB Boundaries

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---

# Elkton UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Elkton UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Douglas UGBs: Glendale in Context

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.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 12.78% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 8.89% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 11.66% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 293 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 355 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 383 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.81% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 87.61% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.30% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.65 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.75 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.51 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $13,646 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $27,625 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $55,481 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 69.08% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.16% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 87.72% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Douglas County: Glendale UGB Boundaries

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City","UGB"],"na_color":null,"na_label":"NA","opacity":1,"position":"topright","type":"unknown","title":null,"extra":null,"layerId":null,"className":"info legend","group":null}]}],"limits":{"lat":[42.73141627779385,42.74445311771798],"lng":[-123.4358161912181,-123.4119048463549]}},"evals":[],"jsHooks":[]}</script>

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# Glendale UGB Pop Forecast

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# Glendale UGB Pop Forecast

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# Douglas UGBs: Myrtle Creek in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Douglas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-36-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 7.64% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 14.83% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.37% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,203 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,437 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,544 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.93% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.18% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.39% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.92 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.55 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.39 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $16,694 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $30,658 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $56,842 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 88.24% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.48% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.33% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

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# Douglas County: Myrtle Creek UGB Boundaries

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# Myrtle Creek UGB Pop Forecast

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# Myrtle Creek UGB Pop Forecast

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# Douglas UGBs: Oakland in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Douglas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-41-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 15.69% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 15.09% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 33.19% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 350 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 404 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 413 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.57% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.32% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 88.62% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.73 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.53 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.55 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $15,469 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $29,479 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $60,909 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 82.61% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.53% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 84.85% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Douglas County: Oakland UGB Boundaries

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---

# Oakland UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Oakland UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Douglas UGBs: Reedsport in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Douglas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-46-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 12.90% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 26.15% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 31.35% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,985 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2,178 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2,183 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.21% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.82% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.51% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.65 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.19 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.20 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $17,300 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $26,054 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $48,329 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.23% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.98% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 98.70% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Douglas County: Reedsport UGB Boundaries

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City","UGB"],"na_color":null,"na_label":"NA","opacity":1,"position":"topright","type":"unknown","title":null,"extra":null,"layerId":null,"className":"info legend","group":null}]}],"limits":{"lat":[43.68640690392429,43.72601341466367],"lng":[-124.1394862981218,-124.0706947370885]}},"evals":[],"jsHooks":[]}</script>

---

# Reedsport UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Reedsport UGB Pop Forecast

---

# Douglas UGBs: Riddle in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Douglas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-51-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 7.11% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 11.93% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 14.50% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 476 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 406 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 522 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.28% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.84% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.49% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.85 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.66 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.49 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $16,429 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $28,750 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $60,121 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.02% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 84.47% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.75% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Douglas County: Riddle UGB Boundaries

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# Riddle UGB Pop Forecast

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# Riddle UGB Pop Forecast

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# Douglas UGBs: Roseburg in Context

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<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 14.98% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.93% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.34% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 6,733 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 8,838 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 10,642 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.14% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.20% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.60% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.48 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.32 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.27 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $16,267 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $31,250 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $50,297 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.66% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.83% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.02% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Douglas County: Roseburg UGB Boundaries

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# Roseburg UGB Pop Forecast

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# Roseburg UGB Pop Forecast

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# Douglas UGBs: Sutherlin in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Douglas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-61-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 10.00% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 21.29% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 25.99% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,716 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2,975 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 3,730 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.24% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 91.19% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.18% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.85 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.46 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.41 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $14,770 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $29,068 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $48,610 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 87.27% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.03% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.29% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

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# Douglas County: Sutherlin UGB Boundaries

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---

# Sutherlin UGB Pop Forecast

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# Sutherlin UGB Pop Forecast

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# Douglas UGBs: Winston in Context

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<img src="Douglas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-66-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 8.48% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 14.22% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 22.77% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,240 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,892 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2,384 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.19% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.65% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.64% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.88 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.61 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.46 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $15,596 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $28,939 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $51,182 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 86.72% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.06% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 97.19% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Douglas County: Winston UGB Boundaries

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# Winston UGB Pop Forecast

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# Winston UGB Pop Forecast

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# Douglas UGBs: Yoncalla in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Douglas_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-71-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 16.02% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 16.25% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 32.81% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 323 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 437 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 467 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.74% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.59% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 88.65% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.63 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.56 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.45 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $13,015 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $26,625 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $50,234 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 82.61% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.14% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 86.64% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Douglas County: Yoncalla UGB Boundaries

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---

# Yoncalla UGB Pop Forecast

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# Yoncalla UGB Pop Forecast

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# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Proposal Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts